[vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1481528399383{margin-right: 30px !important;margin-left: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;background-color: #ffffff !important;}”][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1481528233893{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6231″ img_size=”400×400″ onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/baroemeter/”][vc_custom_heading text=”The BaroEMeter: The Title Fight and the Relegation Battle” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fbaroemeter%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084283300{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”February 17, 2017″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fbaroemeter%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084267527{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”How do EM economies rank on external and domestic risks? We introduce an unequally weighed scorecard with ‘regime switching’features to help us find out who’s doing better or worse in EM.” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fbaroemeter%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084245138{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1481528244926{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6232″ img_size=”400×400″ onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/schematics-em-vs-dm-new-divisions-in-an-old-divide/”][vc_custom_heading text=”SchEMatics: EM vs DM – New Divisions in an Old Divide” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fschematics-em-vs-dm-new-divisions-in-an-old-divide%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084451698{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”February 10, 2017″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fschematics-em-vs-dm-new-divisions-in-an-old-divide%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084474008{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”The traditional divide between EM and DM will still matter, but structural change will create new dynamics that will cluster both DM and EM economies together on the winning side, and create a similar mix for the list of losers.” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fschematics-em-vs-dm-new-divisions-in-an-old-divide%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084497235{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1483970847773{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6233″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/feds-one-mistake/”][vc_custom_heading text=”The One Mistake That Could Hurt the Fed” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ffeds-one-mistake%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084620267{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”January 31, 2017″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ffeds-one-mistake%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084653555{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”The Fed has three mistakes: First, trying to dampen volatility at every turn. Second, misread the signal from aggregate inflation. But it is the third – arguing that the equilibrium real interest rate is zero, that could be much harder to deal with.

” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ffeds-one-mistake%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084671640{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1481528399383{margin-right: 30px !important;margin-left: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;background-color: #ffffff !important;}”][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1481528233893{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6236″ img_size=”400×400″ onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/does-president-trump-secretly-love-mexico/”][vc_custom_heading text=”Does President Trump Secretly Love Mexico More Than America Inc.?” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fdoes-president-trump-secretly-love-mexico%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084787949{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”January 20, 2017″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fdoes-president-trump-secretly-love-mexico%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084805935{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”US equities are priced for perfection, Mexico for destruction. Should any of Mr. Trump’s new policies affect corporate America adversely, equity markets would react badly. That’s exactly what we think will happen if border taxes become the dominant policy tool. Mexico, on the other hand, is priced for destruction already, has options and could see a better structural story play out. ” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fdoes-president-trump-secretly-love-mexico%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084827959{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1481528244926{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6237″ img_size=”400×400″ onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/2017-five-structural-reversals/”][vc_custom_heading text=”2017 – Five Structural Reversals” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2F2017-five-structural-reversals%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084930053{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”January 13, 2017″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2F2017-five-structural-reversals%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084946539{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”Five structural reversals will make sure that the next decade is nothing like the last one. Demographics and political dominance, the transition from secular to structural stagnation, China’s hard landing, EM structural change and breaking the myth of the ‘middle income trap’ will all play a role. Along with our themes, we explain our focus and the way we do things here at Talking Heads Macro. ” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2F2017-five-structural-reversals%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1488084973921{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1483970847773{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6094″ img_size=”400×400″ onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/monetizing-indias-demonetization/”][vc_custom_heading text=”Monetizing India’s ‘Demonetization’ ” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ftaper-tantrum%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1483971254294{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”January 5, 2017″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ftaper-tantrum%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1483971276734{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”January 5, 2017″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ftaper-tantrum%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1483971276734{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”Demonetization is a misleading term for what has happened in India thus far. Rather, it is what Mr. Modi hopes to achieve in the future. The re-denomination has happened has created a liquidity shock (which is already reversing) and three opportunities that lie ahead: a political one, one for a better policy mix, and a clear opportunity in markets which makes India our best buy in EM.” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fmonetizing-indias-demonetization%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1483971545279{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1481528399383{margin-right: 30px !important;margin-left: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;background-color: #ffffff !important;}”][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1481528233893{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6121″ img_size=”400×400″ onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/what-is-mr-trump-fighting/”][vc_custom_heading text=”What Is Mr. Trump Fighting?” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fem-under-fire%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1483969891215{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”December 19, 2016″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fem-under-fire%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1483969901104{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”Is he fighting the cause or the effect, Mr. Summers’s secular stagnation or what we call ‘structural stagnation’, today’s problems or tomorrow’s challenges? At the heart of each of these, we argue, lies productivity. If so, then why do we argue that a corporate revival is the key, but (i) helicopter financed infrastructure is a disaster-in-waiting, (ii) personal income tax cuts could well be deflationary, and (iii) protectionism will have a far lower impact than most believe.
” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fwhat-is-mr-trump-fighting%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1483971601876{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1483970847773{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6059″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/em-under-fire/”][vc_custom_heading text=”EM Under Fire – Deja Vu? Part I – Exposure ” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fem-under-fire%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1481528451606{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”December 5, 2016″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fem-under-fire%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1481528465495{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”Can EM deal with higher US yields? We argue some can. Doesn’t the Taper Tantrum tell us EM will crash? It does, but our Triple Unwind framework shows its the wrong playbook to use. Where have EM economies done their homework? The Good, the not-so-Bad, the still-Bad where Malaysia is heading towards a crisis
” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Fem-under-fire%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1481528478421{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″ css=”.vc_custom_1481528244926{padding-top: 10px !important;padding-right: 10px !important;padding-bottom: 10px !important;padding-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_single_image image=”6058″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://talkingheadsmacro.com/thm/taper-tantrum/”][vc_custom_heading text=”The Taper Tantrum – More in Store?” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:16|text_align:left|color:%23000000″ google_fonts=”font_family:Roboto%20Slab%3A100%2C300%2Cregular%2C700|font_style:700%20bold%20regular%3A700%3Anormal” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ftaper-tantrum%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1481527084306{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”November 20, 2016″ font_container=”tag:div|font_size:12|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ftaper-tantrum%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1481527202897{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][mk_padding_divider size=”10″][vc_custom_heading text=”Inflation scare or the Real McCoy? Won’t a stronger USD just lower inflation and yields again? Can yields go to 3%? The Fed – BoJ divide – what does it do to markets?” font_container=”tag:div|font_size:14|text_align:left” use_theme_fonts=”yes” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingheadsmacro.com%2Fthm%2Ftaper-tantrum%2F|||” css=”.vc_custom_1481527587090{margin-right: 10px !important;margin-left: 10px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space height=”70px”][/vc_column][/vc_row]