GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

Misalignments Under the Hood of EM Synchronisation

"EM growth has become more synchronized, but there are still significant misalignments below the surface. Ironically, these misalignments are good news for markets."

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

7-8 'Hikes' by End-2018 - How Will Yields and USD React?

Markets are severely underestimating what the global economy means for interest rates. But what will this mean for US Treasury yields and the US dollar?

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

Running with the Pack – Central Banks and Cyclists

Central banks and cyclists may be strategic cousins - both ride in groups to protect themselves from headwinds or to take advantage of tailwinds. But when crosswinds or steep climbs show up, the pack can break up, creating macroeconomic divergences.

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

How Much Does the US Need Trump?

Is the US economy really not a late-cycle economy? If not, then why doesn't it need a fiscal package? Does the composition of the package matter?

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

The BaroEMeter:The Title Fight and the Relegation Battle

How do EM economies rank on external and domestic risks? We introduce an unequally weighed scorecard with 'regime switching'features to help us find out who's doing better or worse in EM.

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

SchEMatics: EM vs DM - New Divisions in an Old Divide

The traditional divide between EM and DM will still matter, but structural change will create new dynamics that will cluster both DM and EM economies together on the winning side, and create a similar mix for the list of losers.

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

The One Mistake That Could Hurt the Fed

The Fed has three mistakes: First, trying to dampen volatility at every turn. Second, misread the signal from aggregate inflation. But it is the third - arguing that the equilibrium real interest rate is zero, that could be much harder to deal with.

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

Does President Trump Secretly Love Mexico More Than America Inc.?

US equities are priced for perfection, Mexico for destruction. Should any of Mr. Trump's new policies affect corporate America adversely, equity markets would react badly. That's exactly what we think will happen if border taxes become the dominant policy tool. Mexico, on the other hand, is priced for destruction already, has options and could see a better structural story play out.

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

2017 - Five Structural Reversals

Five structural reversals will make sure that the next decade is nothing like the last one. Demographics and political dominance, the transition from secular to structural stagnation, China's hard landing, EM structural change and breaking the myth of the 'middle income trap' will all play a role. Along with our themes, we explain our focus and the way we do things here at Talking Heads Macro.

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

Monetizing India’s ‘Demonetization’

Demonetization is a misleading term for what has happened in India thus far. Rather, it is what Mr. Modi hopes to achieve in the future. The re-denomination has happened has created a liquidity shock (which is already reversing) and three opportunities that lie ahead: a political one, one for a better policy mix, and a clear opportunity in markets which makes India our best buy in EM.

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

What

Is he fighting the cause or the effect, Mr. Summers's secular stagnation or what we call 'structural stagnation', today's problems or tomorrow's challenges? At the heart of each of these, we argue, lies productivity. If so, then why do we argue that a corporate revival is the key, but (i) helicopter financed infrastructure is a disaster-in-waiting, (ii) personal income tax cuts could well be deflationary, and (iii) protectionism will have a far lower impact than most believe.

Is

Mr. Trump Fighting?

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

EM Under Fire - Deja Vu? Part I - Exposure

Can EM deal with higher US yields? We argue some can. Doesn't the Taper Tantrum tell us EM will crash? It does, but our Triple Unwind framework shows its the wrong playbook to use. Where have EM economies done their homework? The Good, the not-so-Bad, the still-Bad where Malaysia is heading towards a crisis

GLOBAL MACRO FOR MARKETS

- WITH A DEEP DIVE INTO EMERGING MARKETS

The Taper Tantrum - More in Store?

Inflation scare or the Real McCoy? Won't a stronger USD just lower inflation and yields again?

Can yields go to 3%? The Fed - BoJ divide - what does it do to markets?